On the fan-created Reddit page r/nyjets, the future is bright for one of the worst teams in the NFL. If you get all of your NFL news from the r/nyjets , you might not realize that the Jets have been one of the worst teams in the NFL for a decade. The page is an illustration of optimism bias — the psychological tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. It is a bias that studies show NFL fans are prone to.
It’s been mostly downhill since 1969, when “Broadway” Joe Namath led the Jets to their first and only Superbowl win. Recently, the Jets have struggled even more than usual, failing to make the playoffs since 2010 and winning the third fewest games in the NFL during that period. But on r/nyjets, the Reddit home for New York Jets fans, there seems to be an excuse for every bad thing about the team.
Zach Wilson, the Jets rookie quarterback who the team drafted with the second pick in the 2021 NFL draft, was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year based on his QBR, the leading quarterbackranking statistic. Wilson’s primary issue was throwing interceptions, throwing one on nearly 3 percent of his passes — sixth worst in the league.
But on r/nyjets, fans are quick to find evidence to support their conclusion that Zach Wilson is actually a good quarterback. Some users post obscure stats: u/inkypinkblinky posted on January 20 that Zach Wilson was the only NFL quarterback in 2021 with over 50 red zone passing attempts to record zero interception-worthy plays. Others make excuses: u/SuperCD7478 posted on January 18 a statistical analysis showing that Wilson was harmed more by wide receivers dropping the ball than any other quarterback in the league.
A similar trend emerges with respect to the Jets’ first-year head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets hired Saleh after he had several successful seasons as the San Francisco 49ers’ defensive coordinator. But in his first year as the Jets’ head coach, Saleh guided the Jets to having the worst-ranked defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense actually improved without Saleh, having a higher-ranked defense and giving up fewer points without him in 2021 than with him in 2020.
Perhaps unable to find any statistics that prove that Saleh is a good coach, some fans on r/nyjets use subjective evidence to support their optimism. For example, two-year Reddit veteran u/SilverbackJet posted on January 2 “Call me crazy but I really like the year Robert Saleh has had — Positive culture with little drama — Great sideline energy — Good development of young talent — Analytically sound management decisions — Maintains a patient, longterm outlook — Not afraid to bench players.”
Jets fans’ blind loyalty may not be unique, as optimism bias impacts fans of all teams, but it highlights what literary critique and former Yale Drama professor Richard Gilman once wrote about sports fandom:
Being a sports fan is a complex matter, in part irrational but not unworthy; a relief from the seriousness of the real world, with its unending pressures and often grave obligations.
A little optimism — and sports — might be good for you. But if you want to place early bets on next-years’ Superbowl winner, consider other research sources besides r/nyjets.
